WBZ Weather Almanac

Is New England Next?...

Bob Thompson, National Weather Service, Taunton, MA

It was a day in mid August that our forefathers like John Winthrop and William Bradford would never forget. Historian Edward Rowe Snow called it the "Tempest of 1635.?The Reverend Anthony Thatcher and his wife lost 5 children when shipwrecked on the island that to this day bears their name. The writings of Winthrop and Bradford describe a terrible storm that downed many hundreds of trees, damaged houses, dumped heavy rain and drove Indians into the trees with 20 foot tides in Buzzards Bay. This colonial hurricane was the first recorded in New England, but not the last. Since then, many tropical cyclones have lashed our region and our past stands as a clue to our future.

During the 20th Century, seven hurricanes made landfall on our shores. Four achieved major intensity, Category 3 or stronger. Remarkably, these four major hurricanes (1938, 1944, Carol/Edna 1954) struck within a 16 year period. In the 50 years since, Donna, Gloria and Bob have hit, but each time we dodged the incredible devastation a Category 3 can deliver. So could we be due?

Two forces of nature are necessary to bring a major hurricane to our region. First, conditions in the tropics must be favorable for a hurricane to form and strengthen. Tropical cyclones are borne and bred over tropical waters (sea surface at least 80ºF) and ironically, thrive under light winds aloft. Second, the precise position of the ever changing steering currents over the eastern U.S. must be perfectly positioned to whisk a hurricane our way. Cooler waters in our neighborhood north of the Gulf Stream weaken slow moving hurricanes before they reach us. Major hurricanes survive the trip when they accelerate in our direction, limiting our time to prepare. The ?8 Hurricane hit a forward speed of 60 mph before its crushing landfall.

Our Hurricane Risk

Hurricanes pose a triple threat of wind, inland flooding and coastal destruction. In 1938, over 90 million trees were downed in Windham County, Connecticut alone. But it does not take a Category 3 storm to produce devastating flooding. In 1955, Diane (below minimal hurricane strength) produced 12-18?of rain within 24 hours, resulting in record flooding in southern New England. Coastal flooding from a hurricane's storm surge (caused by winds piling up water) can occur anywhere along our shore, but is of greatest concern along our south facing coast. In 1991, Hurricane Bob damaged or destroyed homes along Buzzards Bay with a 6-9 foot storm surge. Old timers will remember the still greater wrath of Hurricane Carol in ?4 which featured an 11-14 foot storm surge in both Narragansett and Buzzards Bays. But much worse is possible, if not inevitable. Had the ?8 Hurricane tracked just 50 miles farther east, the Buzzards Bay shore would have been submerged by a storm surge of 20-25 feet! No one alive today has experienced such catastrophic coastal flooding, but one day that will change.

If a hurricane is forecast to head our way, will you recognize the seriousness of the threat in time? Meteorologists fear people will delay evacuation until it is too late. Local forecasters recommend that New England residents monitor developments whenever a hurricane is near the Bahamas. Our ability to minimize casualties when the next "big one?hits hinges upon the willingness of residents to act by assessing risk and formulating a plan even BEFORE a hurricane threatens.

Bob Thompson is the Meteorologist-in-Charge of the local National Weather Service Forecast Office in Taunton. He oversees a 24 7 operation that provides warning and forecast services for most of southern New England and adjacent coastal waters.