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Sep 11, 2007 6:48 pm US/Eastern
Tsongas Holds 10-Point Lead In Survey
But There's Hope For Anti-Congress Opponent
by Jon Keller
(WBZ)
It's just one week after the primary, and the race for the 5th Congressional District is shaping up to be a close one.
Here are the results of our exclusive Fast Track: If the election were held today, Democrat Niki Tsongas would pick up 51 percent of the vote, to 41 percent for Republican Jim Ogonowski.
Get complete survey results
here.
Elections are all about the public mood, what's really on the minds of voters, and which candidate connects with that most effectively.
And while our survey gives the antiwar candidate the lead, it offers big-time hope for the anti-Congress candidate.
First, the good news for Niki Tsongas. She not only has that 10-point lead, but she's reaping the harvest of a yawning gender gap.
In our Fast Track survey, Ogonowski has a commanding 13 point-lead among men, who tend to skew a bit more conservative. But Tsongas holds a whopping 32-point margin among women, surely in part due to excitement over the prospect of sending our first woman to Congress in 25 years.
"Make no mistake, this election will be a referendum on the presidency of George Bush," Tsongas told her supporters on primary night.
Now, the bad news for Tsongas.
Yes, voters in the 5th hold the current administration in low esteem, but they're every bit as fed up with the Democrat-controlled Congress.
Seventy-two percent of respondents to our survey say they disapprove of the job Congress is doing. And among those voters, it's a dead heat between Tsongas and Ogonowski, who has made anger at Congress the centerpiece of his candidacy.
"Have you seen the ratings of Congress right now?" Ogonowski said on primary night. "It's down in the teens. People are fed up with Congress. Right now they're calling this the do-nothing Congress."
"Let's send a message to the White House! " Tsongas said to cheers from her supporters that same evening.
"People don't want politics as usual, they don't want lifelong partisan politicians," Ogonowski said the same night.
There you have it, a contrast in emphasis, with each candidate trying to burden the other with their partisan baggage.
Election Day is five weeks from today, and this one could be interesting.
(© MMVII, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)
