Boston Area News

BOSTON (Sports Network) ― The New England Patriots will be trying to get a step closer to their fourth consecutive AFC East title on Sunday, when Bill Belichick and company welcome the Houston Texans to Gillette Stadium.

The 9-4 Patriots can actually wrap up the division with a win and a loss for the Jets in Minnesota, though New England is likely to be more focused on strong play than any potential postseason scenarios. The Pats come off their most lifeless performance of the season, a 21-0 road blanking at the hands of the Miami Dolphins that represented their first shutout loss since the beginning of the 2003 season. Quarterback Tom Brady threw for a season-low 78 yards in the embarrassing defeat, though the Jets' subsequent loss to the Buffalo Bills allowed New England to maintain its two-game advantage in the AFC East.

The Patriots enter Week 15 fourth in the AFC pecking order behind the Chargers (11-2), Colts (10-3), and Ravens (10-3).

Houston's objective over the final three games of the season will simply be to improve and build confidence heading into 2007. First-year head coach Gary Kubiak has already guided the team to a two-game improvement following last year's 2-14 debacle, though the Texans seemingly took a step back in their 26-20 overtime loss to the Titans in Week 15. That loss greatly improved the chances of Houston (4-9) ending the season alone in the AFC South basement, the third time the franchise will have earned that distinction in five years of existence.


SERIES HISTORY

New England has won its only all-time meeting with Houston, taking a 23-20 overtime decision when the teams met at Reliant Stadium in Week 12 of the 2003 season. A Houston-based NFL franchise will be traveling to New England this week for the first time since the 1993 Oilers won at Foxboro Stadium.

Belichick is 1-0 in his career against the Texans. Houston's Kubiak will be meeting both Belichick and New England for the first time as a head coach.


TEXANS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE

One week after failing to complete a single-second half past in a defense- fueled win at Oakland, embattled Houston quarterback David Carr (2391 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) was slightly better in last Sunday's loss to Tennessee. Carr completed an efficient 17-of-23 passes for 140 yards without a touchdown or turnover, ending the day with a solid 89.0 passer rating that was his best in seven weeks. Despite Carr's inconsistency, wide receiver Andre Johnson (92 receptions, 5 TD) is having a career season, with his 92 catches leading the league. Johnson went over the 1,000-yard plateau for the second time in his career last Sunday, when he hauled in seven passes for 68 yards in a losing effort. No. 2 wideout Eric Moulds (51 receptions, 1 TD) was limited to one seven-yard catch in the game, and tight ends Owen Daniels (33 receptions, 5 TD) and Jeb Putzier (11 receptions) had two receptions each. Carr has been sacked 36 times on the year, including twice last week.

The New England defense will try to force Carr into some mistakes on Sunday, one week after they allowed Dolphins quarterback Joey Harrington to basically roam free. Harrington was sacked just once all day, was not pressured often, and completed 190 yards of passes without a turnover on the day. The job of locking up with Johnson will likely fall to cornerback Asante Samuel (54 tackles, 7 INT), who is the NFL tri-leader in interceptions as Week 15 begins, with fellow CB Chad Scott (38 tackles, 2 INT) locked up with Moulds and safeties James Sanders (28 tackles) and Artrell Hawkins (53 tackles, 1 INT) lending support. Scott and Hawkins had five tackles each against the Dolphins. Leading the pass rush will be outside linebackers Roosevelt Colvin (46 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and Jarvis Green (26 tackles, 5.5 sacks), along with defensive end Ty Warren (69 tackles, 6.5 sacks), who had the Pats' only sack last Sunday. Colvin and Warren are tied for the team lead in sacks, with Green sitting just one behind them.

The ability to find a consistent groove in the running game has been a season- long problem for a Houston offense that ranks just 24th in NFL rushing offense (99.6 yards per game), though it appears that the team has made some progress on that front in recent weeks. Former Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne (365 rushing yards, 2 TD, 12 receptions) has returned to the fore with 182 yards and a pair of touchdowns over a two-game stretch, with those performances representing his best work of 2006. Wali Lundy (462 rushing yards, 4 TD, 30 receptions) spelled Dayne with five rushes for 14 yards last Sunday, and fullback Vonta Leach received high marks for his blocking for a second straight week.

Dayne could find running room difficult to come by against a Patriots defense that ranks third in the league against the rush (86.4). The team's primary run-stopping crew, which starts with the three-man line of Warren, nose tackle Vince Wilfork (50 tackles, 1 sack), and end Richard Seymour (33 tackles, 4 sacks) and extends to inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (91 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Mike Vrabel (80 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT), comes off a less-than- stellar outing in Miami, however. The Patriots allowed backup Dolphins rusher Sammy Morris to accumulate a career-high 123 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries in place of the injured Ronnie Brown. Bruschi did manage a game-high- tying nine tackles in the defeat.


PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. TEXANS DEFENSE

Brady (2946 passing yards, 20 TD, 12 INT) will have to rebound from one of the poorest outings of his NFL career, a game that saw him complete just 12-of-25 passes for 78 yards with a lost fumble before giving way to backup Matt Cassel in the late stages of the contest. Brady, who finished with a dismal passer rating of 55.1, saw the nine drives he orchestrated result in seven punts and a pair of fumbles. The Pro Bowl signal-caller will try to get wideouts Reche Caldwell (47 receptions, 3 TD) and Troy Brown (35 receptions, 3 TD) more heavily involved this week. Caldwell was limited to one catch for 12 yards in his quietest game in over a month last week, while Brown managed three grabs for 25 yards on a day that won't rank high on his illustrious resume' of performances. Brady could be without his top pass-catcher this week, as tight end Ben Watson (49 receptions, 3 TD) is listed as questionable with a knee injury. If Watson can't go, Daniel Graham (17 receptions, 2 TD) and rookie David Thomas (3 receptions) figure to be featured in the team's two-tight end sets. The Patriots line has allowed 25 sacks on the year, five of which came against Miami last week.

Brady and the aerial game should be able to make some headway against a Houston defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in passing defense (225.8 yards per game) sacks (26), and interceptions (10). Though the Texans were ultimately burned by the legs of Tennessee quarterback Vince Young last week, the rookie also amassed 218 yards through the air against them. Complicating matters for the Houston defense this week is the fact that starting free safety C.C. Brown (67 tackles, 1 sack) is listed as doubtful with a foot injury, meaning cornerbacks Dunta Robinson (68 tackles, 2 INT) and Demarcus Faggins (18 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) will be under additional pressure to slow the likes of Caldwell and Troy Brown. Jason Simmons (35 tackles, 1 INT) will likely start at safety opposite Glenn Earl (56 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT). Anthony Weaver (34 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and rookie Mario Williams (36 tackles, 4.5 sacks) lead a pass rush that has been more cold than hot this season. Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 Draft, has gone five straight games without breaking through to the quarterback.

The New England offense will run with greater efficiency if rookie running back Laurence Maroney (624 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 5 TD), who missed the Miami game with back problems, can return to the lineup on Sunday. Maroney is officially listed as questionable for this week. If he is out again, veteran Corey Dillon (654 rushing yards, 10 TD) will bear the brunt of the rushing load for a second straight week. Dillon took over the team lead in rushing with a 16-carry, 79-yard effort against the Dolphins. Also in line for more work is third-down back Kevin Faulk (93 rushing yards, 39 receptions, 1 TD), who combined for 41 yards on seven total touches in the Week 14 defeat. Faulk's best statistical game came against the Texans, as he had 188 total yards (80 rushing, 108 receiving), a career-high to date, in New England's 23-20 overtime win over the Texans on Nov. 23, 2003.

The Texans enter Week 15 ranked 21st in the league against the rush (123.8 yards per game), and failed to consistently stop the Tennessee ground game last Sunday. In addition to the work done by Young outside the pocket (7 carries, 86 yards, 1 TD), Titans running backs Travis Henry and Chris Brown combined for 132 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 24 total carries. Seeking to control Dillon, Faulk, and perhaps Maroney will be the Houston linebacking corps of DeMeco Ryans (127 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) in the middle and Morlon Greenwood (85 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and Shantee Orr (26 tackles, 1.5 sacks) on the outside. The rookie Ryans posted a team-high 14 tackles last week, and Greenwood chipped in with nine stops and a forced fumble. The Texans have been beset by injuries on the interior defensive line this year, but Anthony Maddox (23 tackles, 1 sack) and Lional Dalton (8 tackles, 1 sack) have done a credible job at the point of attack.


OVERALL ANALYSIS

There are teams that match up well with the Patriots, and teams that don't. The Texans don't. Houston doesn't make enough plays defensively to keep Brady from picking them apart, and probably won't do much to limit the ground game's effectiveness either. On the other side of the ball, Dayne may have produced in recent weeks, but he isn't going to garner much mileage against New England's quality run-stopping front. It all adds up to a sizeable Patriots victory, one that will help the team move on following last week's debacle in Miami.


Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Patriots 35, Texans 10

(Sports Network)