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WBZ-TV Political Analyst Jon Keller is full of opinions, and he isn't afraid to share them. Check back often for Jon's unique take on the world of politics, with some occasional Pop Culture thrown in.
You can watch Jon's commentaries from WBZ-TV to the right of your screen. Read his blog entries for wbztv.com below.
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Bio: Meet Jon Keller
06/09/08 11:15 AM
It comes at the start of his re-election campaign, but the crucial question about Sen. John Kerry - is he ready/willing/able to step up and be the lead federal-funding rainmaker for Massachusetts if, God forbid, Ted Kennedy is unable to continue - isn't really a political issue. Democratic primary challenger Ed O'Reilly and Republican candidate Jeff Beatty are capable of articulating the valid, longstanding complaint about Kerry and his operation - they treat constituent phone calls like unwanted intrusions that needn't be acknowledged.
But that argument alone isn't likely to topple Kerry. O'Reilly is banking on anger within the Democratic ranks over Kerry's vote to authorize the Iraq war and Clinton-supporter fury over his early Obama endorsement. But I'd be surprised if the Obama-Clinton rift locally isn't near-completely healed by the fall. And how exactly do Clintonites justify punishing Kerry for taking the same vote on Iraq that Hillary did? Beatty wants to blame all of our ills on Kerry, but that message trips over the "Invisible Senator" theme; if he's such a distracted empty suit who never gets anything passed, how can he be culpable for allegedly-poor federal policymaking?
You never want to say never, but let's just say it's highly likely Kerry will continue as our senator. But the issue of what his future role will be - and if he's even capable of stepping up as needed - is a vital one to the state's future economic interests. Kerry's opponents and disgruntled voters can do us all a favor by pressing him to make a strong public statement that he gets it, understands how he hasn't measured up in the past, and is fully committed to getting it done.
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June 6, 2008 8:43 p.m.
The full statement tonight from Jim Ogonowski, the Republican Senate candidate who failed to submit enough certified nomination signatures to make the September ballot:
"I have made my decision regarding the future of this US Senate race. Clearly, we had some issues this week regarding signatures. Mistakes were made along the way. But, any good military officer knows that when you are in command, the responsibilities are yours alone. The buck stops with me and I take that responsibility. There has been and will continue to be a lot of Monday morning quarter-backing and people trying to figure out what happened. But, the truth is, it doesn't matter. We could play that game all day long. But, the facts are the facts. For a variety of reasons, we did not meet the signature requirements. And at this time, I have decided not to pursue this endeavor. I provide a sincere thank you to those that stood by me. I am sorry that we did not succeed. I ask for patience as my family and I move forward."
June 3, 2008 3:54 p.m.
Here is the latest statement from GOP Senate hopeful Jim Ogonowski, mulling his options after falling short of the signatures required to get on the September primary ballot:
"I understand that some people may be asking what my intentions are moving forward. I do not yet have an answer for you, but want to thank everyone who has reached out to me in the past few days. Today, I am spending time with my family and maybe I'll even have the chance to enjoy my farm, despite in the rain. This is something I haven't been able to do in quite some time and I actually appreciate the opportunity to do so. I can't tell you the past 24 hours have been easy for me, but I can tell you whatever I decide, it will be a final decision I am comfortable with. And it will be what is best for my family and of course for the citizens of this great state."
June 4, 2008
That would be Jeff Beatty, the former Army Delta Force officer from Harwich who will be - pending possible legal action by the Jim Ogonowski campaign - the GOP nominee for US Senate this fall against John Kerry (assuming Kerry succeeds in squelching a challenge from Gloucester attorney Ed O'Reilly). Much of the local Republican establishment was for Ogonowski, the Dracut farmer who threw a scare into Niki Tsongas in the Fifth District special congressional race last fall. (Full disclosure: my adult son Barney, now communications director for the state GOP, was a member of Ogonowski's campaign staff.) Beatty's supporters include local conservatives who feel estranged from the party for various reasons. So Ogonowski's apparent failure to make the ballot (see their campaign statement below on this blog) is a huge embarassment for local Republican elites.
So what now? We talked with Beatty earlier today. Here is an edited transcript:
"Q: What happened to Ogonowski?
A: We've been worrying about our stuff. and because we've been focusing on our job, we've been getting our job done. We had 25,000 raw signatures collected by a couple of hundred great volunters, and we ended up with 13,000 certified. [Beatty says he paid signature gatherers for about 4,000 of his signatures.]
Q: In a statement last week, Ogonowski said: 'My opposition is trying to deny people the right to choose their nominee. Instead he wants to resort to gutter politics, character assassinations, legal maneuvering and questionable tactics. This is not what this process was intended to accomplish. Our system was created so that any individual could have a chance to represent his community - not as a platform to deny access through false accusations.' He's talking about you, isn't he?
A: I didn't read his statement. I'm not interested in that comment. I am focusing on my job.
Q: The state GOP is desperate for candidates. Why didn't so many of its leaders seem to want to give you a chance?
A: We're getting great buzz, the phone's been ringing off the hook. People are saying 'we're so glad we can now get behind the right candidate.' Listen, the Republican Party does not reside at 85 Merrimack Street [state GOP headquarters], .it's out in Pittsfield, it's in New Bedford. I can only pitch my game. If this were a movie, there's no character I'd rather be playing then the Jeff Beatty character, an adopted kid, taken into a loving family, went into the military and managed to excel at everything I went after. I served with real heroes, I worked with the FBI's national hostage rescue team, then running my own business with clients like the Statue of Liberty, the MBTA, the U.S.S. Constitution. This is my life, an American success story. It shows if you put your nose to the grindstone you can do a lot of great things.
Q: What will your campaign be about going forward?
A: The big three areas we are concentrating on: protecting the family, protecting jobs, and protecting our country. With regard to protecting your job, let me contrast John Kerry's performance to what I have in mind. Let's talk about illegal immigration. We've got a problem with it. It's costing us in jobs, it's suppressing wages for people, it is keeping good union workers sitting at home waiting for the phone to ring and it's not, because John Kerry has been championing bringing in people who compete for those jobs and undercut wages. I've been a Teamster, I am a small business guy, I understand the impact of policies that Kerry sits back and makes in Washington beccause for him, they're just politics, but for us they have a real impact.
Q: How does Ted Kennedy's health crisis complicate your race, if at all? What if it accentuates the issue of seniority in Congress and ability to deliver federal funding?
A: I don't think delivering the bacon has been a function of seniority, it's been a function of Ted Kennedy's personality, just as not delivering the bacon has been a function of John Kerry's personality. Past performance is an indicator of future performance. He isn't getting the job done for us.
Q: What about the buzz about Kerry possible joining an Obama cabinet?
A: I think that's very interesting. John Kerry has shown us all along that he's really not that interested in doing his job in the Senate. Here's another way of showing you 'I'm not interested.' That's one of the things that's going to cost him this election.
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June 3, 2008 6:54 p.m.
John Dickerson of Slate shows why he's one of the few indispensable reads among the traveling presidential campaign press corps.
Among other relevant observations:
"After another drubbing in Puerto Rico, [Obama's] not exactly sprinting across the finish line";
"He doesn't campaign as often without a tie as he used to—that won't do when you're trying to look presidential";
"Wearing the flag pin that he once eschewed, Obama explained that what will unite all Democrats, including Hillary Clinton, will be the specter of a McCain administration. He criticized his Republican opponent on everything from the Iraq war to the gas-tax holiday. Obama immediately followed his critique with a promise not to tear down his opponents. The audience saw no contradiction, applauding this sentiment even more loudly than the McCain bashing that had preceded it."
"Obama's remarks focused heavily on economic matters, an attempt to pull the conversation back to turf his aides think he's particularly strong on. "This election is not going to be like 2004," says a top adviser. "It's going to be about the economy." Talking about the economy also helps Obama out of the national security tussle he's been in with McCain for the last two weeks."
"After the local politicians got their chance at the podium, the honor of introducing Obama went to an unemployed woman, and the candidate took the chance to say that she has woes John McCain wouldn't understand. Voters, particularly those at the lower end of the income scale, have wondered if Obama understands their problems; Obama's response seems in part to be that whatever they may think about him, John McCain is even more out of touch."
"I first saw Barack Obama announced to a crowd as a presidential candidate in a nearly identical venue several months ago, standing at the end of another basketball court in Columbia, S.C. Then, he was a long shot. He has since lost a cigarette habit, his church membership, and maybe a little of his innocence—in the early days, he barely even attacked George Bush. And he's gained a necktie, a flag pin, and the Democratic nomination."
This, my friends, is top-notch political reporting, clear-eyed, skeptical, focused on both substance and style in appropriate proportions. To me, it captures the self-discipline and endurance of this extraordinary campaign, while speaking to the most crucial challenge the Obama campaign must now address (after a day or so off for well-deserved celebration): how to make the same love connection with dubious general-election voters that he made with adoring Democratic primary voters (or, at least, many of them) even as he struggles for credibility on key economic and defense issues.
June 3, 2008 6:20 p.m.
The following statement just in from Alicia Preston, spokesperson for the Jim Ogonowski for US Senate campaign:
"Earlier today, the Ogonowski Campaign released a statement signifying that more than 10,000 certified signatures would be submitted on behalf of Jim Ogonowski to the Secretary of State's Office. That statement was accurate and those signatures were delivered. However, when submitted to the Secretary of State's Office we were notified that some town clerks had erred and had not properly signed the nomination papers. These papers were corrected by the clerks but were unable to be returned to the Secretary of State's Office by 5pm. The removal of those certified signatures from our totals, thereby dropped us below the threshold needed to qualify for the ballot. Previously, the campaign had made a conscious decision not to challenge questionable activity at town clerks offices, because it felt it would be unnecessary. This activity included: missing signature sheets, sheets mailed to Jim before being picked up eliminating the possibility of a review, and great disparity between original claims of initial signature counts and actual totals. However, due to today's developments, the campaign will be reviewing its options on the matter. We appreciate your patience as we review those options. This will be the only statement from the campaign this evening."
(Disclosure: my adult son Barney is communications director of the Massachusetts Republican Party, which is officially neutral in the primary contest between Ogonowski and Jeff Beatty.)
June 3, 2008 5:50 p.m.
From the Associated Press late this afternoon:
"Obama Clinches Nomination"
WASHINGTON – Barack Obama clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, becoming the first black candidate to lead a major party into a campaign for the White House."
Or maybe….not? Isn't there the technical matter of superdelegate votes not being locked in? And if you're counting on those votes to "clinch," isn't that a little like building a house partially on quicksand? Does somebody at the AP have a tingling sensation running up their leg?
June 1, 2008
My credentials for discussing Boston vs. LA? A lifetime of avid Celtics fandom, and vivid memories of Johnny Most complaining about Elgin Baylor getting away with murder - during games broadcast on WHDH-FM because of scheduling conflicts with the Red Sox. (Is that authentic enough for you?)
So I turn on sports talk for a few minutes this weekend, and hear three straight Celtics "fans" preaching doom and gloom. Their reasoning in order of appearance - we can't stop Kobe, Phil Jackson slam dunks on Doc Rivers, and we can't stop Kobe.
Nonsense. The issue isn't us figuring out how to stop the Lakers. It's how they think they're going to stop us.
Kobe will get his points, but he will not be allowed to operate as freely as his Western Conference adversaries allowed him to. With all due respect to the Spurs, neither he nor Lamar Odom nor Derek Fisher have seen anything like the cocoon of defensive horror they are about to enter.
Assorted sports dummies are moaning about the prospect of Rajon Rondo guarding Kobe, but of course, nothing of the sort will occur. Kobe will be hassled by Rondo when he handles the ball, double-teamed by Rondo and Allen and denied the ball whenever possible, subjected to terrifying double-teams from Perkins and Garnett, and otherwise absolutely mauled by Paul Pierce, who, at 6'7" and 235 pounds, is more than a physical match for the 6'6" 205 pound Bryant, even if he nor anyone else can equal Kobe's quickness.
Phil Jackson? An excellent coach, no question, a proven winner. But if you aren't prepared to give similar props to Doc Rivers and company based on their artful semi-neutralization of LeBron James in the Cleveland series and the defensive schemes that stripped the bark off the Pistons, you never will. One thing we haven't seen Jackson do this spring is coach from behind in a series, keeping his head cases motivated and focused when things start to go bad and Dyan Cannon bolts for the limo early.
And his starters better deliver for him; if it gets down to a match up of the benches, the Lakers are in trouble. You take Ronny Turiaf and Luke Walton; I'll happily settle for Posey and Powe, not to mention Big Baby, who you're going to see more of this series because LA has no one within 30 pounds of him.
Everyone in town is popping a tendon drawing comparisons with the Celtics-Lakers showdowns of old, but I have to say I've never seen anything quite like this Celtics team. No one is directly comparable to Bill Russell, the greatest basketball player of all time. But Garnett's superb inside/outside game reminds me of Dave Cowens circa 1974 (remember how he undressed Kareem in Game 7 at Milwaukee?). Ray Allen at his best channels Sam Jones. And Paul Pierce, when he's on, is Bird-like in his court sense and tenacity.
What amazes me about these guys is their size. Have we ever had someone like Posey, a Paul Silas-like 6'8" defensive beast who can hit the three? I believe Bailey Howell is still alive, otherwise you might suspect he's been reincarnated as Big Baby. In the end, the Celtics of the 1960s always beat the Lakers because they never had anyone (sorry, Wilt) who could stop Russell. And I ask all you clueless doubters: who do the Lakers have to stop Garnett?
May 31, 2008 5:28 p.m.
Let's start with Sen. John Kerry, up for re-election to a fifth term this fall, and suffering through an extended bumpy patch in his Massachusetts job-approval ratings. The 29 months since his defeat in the 2004 presidential election haven't been a million laughs for Kerry, who absorbed untold heat for losing a winnable race, threw out his back trying to deliver a "botched joke," and angered some local pro-Clinton women by touting Obama.
But according to our first Fast Track on the Senate race from Survey USA Kerry is cruising toward another term. He leads earnest but little-known Gloucester attorney Ed O'Reilly 68% to 22%. Survey USA: "Kerry takes 72% of the male vote, 65% of the female vote, and no less than 61% of the vote among any age group or region of the state." I'd call that a robust showing easing any concerns about defections by Clinton supporters or lefty Dems who never forgave Kerry for voting to allow the Iraq war. (So robust, maybe Kerry loyalists within the party can start modeling good sportsmanship by letting O'Reilly speak at party functions on the same day as the senator, before the lights in the rental hall have been turned off.)
But what about the final?
If he can manage to squeeze out enough certified signatures, Dracut hay farmer Jim Ogonowski will start off with a big name-recognition boost from his run in the Fifth Congressional District special last year and a 60% to 14% bulge over Jeff Beatty. (Full disclosure: my adult son, now communications director for the Massachusetts Republican Party, worked on Ogonowski's 2007 congressional campaign.) With 26% undecided, that lead could fade fast; it'll vanish altogether if Ogonowski can't get on the ballot, an unpardonable organizational sin.
With all due respect to the game but hapless Republicans, the real issue is: are the voters sick of John Kerry? By a too-close-for-comfort 48% to 42%, they say he deserves to be re-elected. And the biggest warning sign for Kerry is that 49% of the voters say he "spends too little time on Massachusetts issues." Only 36% say he "spends about the right amount of time." This is a longstanding complaint about Kerry that he has been trying for years to dispel, with mixed success, apparently. It is far and away his most significant political weakness, exacerbated over the years by unflattering comparisons of Kerry's DC output with that of the king of federal-grant rainmaking, Ted Kennedy. I hate to say it, but the need to make up for the potential, hopefully avoidable loss of Ted's clout could be very much on voters' minds come November, forcing Kerry to make a more persuasive case to voters here that they really are job #1 for him.
If he does so successfully, Deval Patrick ought to be taking notes.
There's no way of sugar-coating it: Patrick's latest Fast Track numbers are horrible. While within the margin-of-error of his last set of job-approval numbers, the governor's 56% disapproval is his all-time worst showing. Among the many lowlights: 61% disapproval among men, a 14-point surge since his last decent job-approval showing, a 47% to 45% result in mid-February (before the casino debacle, Bookgate, and override season's reminder of unmet tax-relief promises); 60% disapproval rates among moderates and independents, double-digit jumps in both cases; and a 22% collapse among self-declared liberals. Look out, below!
Patrick loyalists tell me he's really been racking up wins for the people lately, the life-sciences bill, the oceans bill, etc. Maybe so. So far, few voters seem to know or care.
Jon Keller is widely regarded as the top political analyst in New England. He is a favorite of the region's viewers because he is smart and witty, and he asks the tough questions everyone wants to have asked.
Read: Jon's Biography
WBZ-TV Political Analyst Jon Keller is now a published author. "Exploring what's gone wrong with the state and how its mistakes have poisoned national Democratic politics."
Read: Excerpt From The Book
"My adult son Barney is a political activist who has worked for Republican candidates here and in New Hampshire. On March 3 Barney begins a new position doing communications for the Massachusetts Republican Party."
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