Feb 14, 2008 11:13 am US/Eastern
State Of The Sox: Good On Paper
A 'State Of The Red Sox' 5-Part Series
Reporting
Dan Roche
BOSTON (WBZ) ―
It is one of the least favorite terms of Sox General Manager Theo Epstein: "on paper." It gets thrown around quite a bit this time of year because it's really the only way to look at major league teams and their players. And yes, on paper the 2008 Boston Red Sox look very good.
I also said that about the 2005 team that was looking to become the first repeat World Series winners since 1916. However, that team had lost Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, and had Curt Schilling pitching on one foot while working only 93 innings the entire season.
The 2008 Red Sox were delivered a very tough blow a week before they opened for duty down in Fort Myers. Schilling will be lost for about half the season (or more) and if (and when) he returns, who knows what he'll be able to give the Sox. After all, Curt is 41-years-old and was planning for a long time to retire after this past season. If he had done so, he would have walked away as the winningest postseason pitcher in baseball history (percentage-wise at 11-2). That will be missed.
Starting Pitchers
The 2008 Red Sox will fare as well as their pitching takes them.
Last year's core of starting pitchers won 76 games (Beckett 20, Wakefield 17, Matsuzaka 15, Schilling 9, Tavarez 7, Lester 4, and Gabbard 4).
Beckett should have won the Cy Young award. Can he repeat that type of year? Certainly. No reason why not. He's in the prime of his career and he's harnessed his special ability. Go ahead and look up all the great starting pitchers and they have very good seasons for a decent stretch of years. Beckett looks like he's ready for that.
Matsuzaka won 15 games and went through quite a bit in his first season in the U.S. and in a Red Sox uniform. His every move was sliced and diced (no pun intended) all season. I think he really settled in and found himself maybe in his last start (Game 3 of the WS). I would expect another solid campaign from him.
After that, who knows. If Tim Wakefield can stay healthy he wins 12-17 games.
Both Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have shown brilliant glimpses. Lester has been through as much as Matsuzaka in the last 18 months and could emerge as a 10-15 game winner if he can throw "strike one" on a more consistent basis. Buchholz wowed with his no-hitter last September, but he's "potential, potential, potential".
You also have Julian Tavarez, Devern Hansack, David Pauley and others if you need them. However, I think the Sox may try to find a veteran starter somewhere (for Coco?).
For More See Part One: The Starting Pitchers
The Bullpen
As for the bullpen, it should be fine. My biggest question is how will Okajima respond in year two? Can he repeat what he did in 2007? No offense to Dustin Pedroia, but I thought Okie should have received way more votes than he did in the "AL Rookie-of-the-Year" award voting. If Okie can come close to his 2007 form, watch out.
Again, the key though is finding guys that can get to Papelbon.
For More See Part Two: The Bullpen
Defense
The defense is fine for the Sox. You have Lowell, Lugo (good range), Pedroia, and Youkilis. Three of those guys could contend for a Gold Glove in 2008. We know what Varitek brings behind the plate. The outfield defense is solid in center and right field, and adequate in left field.
For More See Part Three: The Infield, Part Four: The Outfield
Hitting
At the plate the line-up could be better than 2007. If Jacoby Ellsbury can lead-off (and I think the Sox will give him every chance to do so), then a 1-2 table-setting group of Ellsbury and Pedroia could be huge for the offense. Mike Lowell won't repeat his 2007 (.324, 21, 120), but Manny Ramirez should replace those numbers after a down year for him in 2007 (.296, 20, 88). So in other words, it is reasonable for Lowell and Manny to simply swap numbers in 2008 while David Ortiz should be well, David.
Kevin Youkilis, Jason Varitek, J.D. Drew, and Julio Lugo all should do just fine from the 6th through 9th spots. Again, this has the potential to be a better line-up in 2007.
For More See Part Three: The Infield, Part Four: The Outfield
Overall
Overall, who knows? It is tough to predict if Boston can repeat its 96-66 season from a year ago. As you know in Boston, every day is an NFL Sunday. The Red Sox simply need to stay the course, overcome injuries, and see if they can simply "make the tournament". After that, they've got plenty of postseason experience for a possible repeat.
Meanwhile, you can bet Theo Epstein will add whatever he needs to, either from down on the farm or via the trade route. He has basically stood pat (which he didn't do in 2005), so we shall see.
I do think though, that this team has as good a chance as any team since the Yankees to repeat as World Champions, but it won't be easy.
Then again, in Boston, nothing is easy.
Part One: The Starting Pitchers Part Two: The Bullpen Part Three: The Infield
Part Four: The Outfield
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