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Dan Roche's Red Sox-Angels Prediction

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Dan Roche's Red Sox-Angels Prediction

Read: Dan Roche's Blog

ANAHEIM (WBZ) ― The Red Sox have dominated the LA Angels in postseason play this decade.

We know that.

2004, 2007, and 2008.

Three series wins and a 9-1 record.

Out here in Anaheim the cry is "not this year."

The Angels feel they are a more balanced team this time around and I bet they are angry at the Sox for some things that happened during the regular season (Josh Beckett throwing at Bobby Abreu and Nick Green not being rung up to end a game with the bases loaded at Fenway).

So, let's take a look at this series with a position-by-position match-up:

FIRST BASE

Kevin Youkilis missed 36 games, but was solid in numbers again. Youk batted .305 with 27 HR and 94 RBI while scoring 99 runs. He played solid defense at both first and third.

Kendry Morales was outstanding in a tough predicament as he took over for departed free agent Mark Teixeira. Morales hit .306 with 34 HR and 108 RBI.

Summary

Youkilis brings a ton of intangibles as we know and forms a powerful 1-2 duo with Dustin Pedroia as far as grinding out wins on a nightly basis. Morales is an X factor for the Angels as we don't know what he'll do in the postseason spotlight. He could be a difference-maker, but for now you have to go with Youkils.

Edge: Even


SECOND BASE

Dustin Pedroia wasn't able to put up the numbers that he did in 2008 when he captured the AL MVP, but he sure was good. Pedroia hit .296 with 115 runs, 48 doubles, 15 HR, 72 RBI, and 20 stolen bases. He also played his gold glove type of defense. Howie Kendrick started real slow, but turned it on to finish with a .291 average with 10 HR and 61 RBI in only 105 games.

Summary

Kendrick can be a very solid player and could be a thorn in the Sox side if he gets it going. Meanwhile, Pedroia is a driving force at the top of the Sox line-up and an unquestioned leader of the team, both on and off the field.

Edge: Boston


SHORTSTOP

Much has been said and written about Theo Epstein's trade deadline acquisition of Victor Martinez, but the players are quick to remind you of Theo's pick up of Alex Gonzalez. He has provided his usual gold glove defense while chipping in nicely hitting .284 with 5 HR and 15 RBI in 44 games. Erik Aybar had a great season. He hit .312 with 70 runs, 23 doubles, 9 triples, 5 HR, 58 RBI, and 14 stolen bases. And, he's a great defensive player.

Summary

Gonzalez has meant a lot to the Sox defensively just like Orlando Cabrera did back in 2004. He's been much better than advertised offensively as well. Aybar is a solid player on this Angels team. Close to call, but....

Edge: LA 


THIRD BASE 

Mike Lowell has responded well when he's gotten shots for his hip which he did two weeks ago. The only question with Mike is can he get his stroke going? We all know what the 2007 World Series MVP can do in postseason play. Meanwhile, he hit .290 with 75 RBI in only 119 games. As for the Angels, Chone Figgins is the guy that makes this team go. He had a great season hitting .298 with 114 runs, 30 doubles, 7 triples, 5 HR, 54 RBI, and 42 stolen bases. He HAS to get on base on a consistent basis in this series. If he does he could cause major headaches for Victor Martinez while creating RBI opportunities for the hitters below him.

Summary

Figgins is one of the big keys to this series. As he goes, so go the Angels. He may be the most important player for LA if they are to finally beat this Red Sox team. Don't discount Mike Lowell having a big postseason. He's loose and feeling good.

Edge: LA


CATCHER

One of the best mid-season moves in Theo Epstein's impressive tenure. Victor Martinez has been brilliant for the Sox and better than most people thought he was while in Cleveland. In 56 games, Martinez hit .336 with 8 HR and 41 RBI and as Terry Francona will tell you, became a leader on the team in just three months. The Sox added a switch-hitting number three hitter. Meanwhile, Jason Varitek should be applauded for quietly accepting a reduced role. It hasn't been easy for the Captain. As for LA, Mike Napoli has the big bat with 20 HRS and 56 RBI while Jeff Mathis is the better signal-caller.

Summary

Can't say enough about how big an acquisition Martinez was for the Red Sox. It will be interesting to see what he does in the postseason.

Edge: Boston


LEFT FIELD

The "sign Jason Bay" cries continue as Sox fans don't want to see this dependable left fielder go anywhere any time soon. Bay put up the numbers that he has throughout his unappreciated career in Pittsburgh. Bay hit .267 with 36 HR and 119 RBI. He slumped for a period of time, but bounced back when the Sox needed the offense badly. Bay also had a monster postseason a year ago. Juan Rivera had a good year for the Angels. He hit .287 with 25 HR and 88 RBI. Got on a ridiculous hot streak in the second half, but cooled off down the stretch.

Summary

Bay quietly goes about his business, but seems to always get the hits when the Sox need a lift. Based on his 2008 postseason, watch out. However, it's tough to perform at that level every year in the playoffs. Rivera is another X factor for LA. The Angels have hit all season and if they can continue in the postseason, they could finally advance past the Sox.

Edge: Boston


CENTER FIELD

Jacoby Ellsbury had a spectacular year atop the Sox order. He hit .301 with 94 runs, 27 doubles, 10 triples, 8 HR, 60 RBI, and a Sox record 70 stolen bases. He does indeed set the table for the Sox. His defense was superb all season long as well. Torii Hunter is much like Youkilis and Pedroia. He makes this Angels team go. A very fiery and emotional player who had a solid season at the plate hitting .299, with 22 HR, 90 RBI, and 18 stolen bases while playing his gold glove defense.

Summary

I would very easily give this edge to the Sox because of how great Ellsbury was all season. We all remember what he did in the 2007 World Series and if he can come close to that, watch out. Hunter is a driving force on this Angels team and he's determined the try to get LA past the pesky Sox.

Edge: Even


RIGHT FIELD

JD Drew had his usual season for the Sox. He appeared in 137 games hitting .279 with 24 HR and 68 RBI with an OBP of .392. We also know that he has hit some of the biggest home runs in Red Sox postseason history and seems to rise to the occasion when needed the most. Bobby Abreu has been a huge free agent signing for the Angels. He had a great season hitting .293 with 96 runs, 29 doubles, 15 HR, 103 RBI, 30 stolen bases, and an OBP of .390. Many people on the Angels side feel he changed the approach at the plate for the LA hitters showing them how patience can pay off.

Summary

It's tough to give LA the edge of Drew simply because of what JD can do and has done in the playoffs. However, if the Angels are to beat Boston then Abreu could be the guy that we point to as the difference-maker for this franchise. The Angels have had a spectacular season at the plate and Abreu and Figgins have led the way.

Edge: LA 


DESIGNATED HITTER 

David Ortiz has had a tough season. He hit rock bottom early with a terrible April and May, while also having to suffer through being on the list of players testing positive for performance enhancing drugs. After doing a good job of proving his innocence, he took out his anger on opposing pitchers banging out 28 HR and 99 RBI while adding 32 doubles. Vladimir Guerrero is not the same player he once was, but can be dangerous in a short series. He hit .295 with 15 HR and 50 RBI in 100 games.

Summary

Watch out for both players. Ortiz is loose and feeling good at the plate repeatedly hitting bomb after bomb in batting practice at Angel Stadium. He could be Boston's X factor here. Same goes for Vladdy, who could have one big final postseason in him.

Edge: Boston


STARTING PITCHING

The Red Sox have as good a 1-2 punch in all of baseball atop the order in Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. Lester was as good as anyone since May while Beckett was good until an August hiccup. His back has to be a concern to the Sox. If he's ok, watch out. Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz had a solid regular season, but no one knows how he will fare with the October spotlight upon him. Daisuke Matsuzaka could be a big factor If Terry Francona elects to pitch him in Game 4. As for LA John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir (good pick-up from TB), and Joe Saunders (great second half) present a deeper front four than Boston.

Summary

In a shorter series, it would appear Boston might have the edge because of Lester and Beckett atop the rotation and that may very well end up being the case. I think that Beckett is the key. He battled through the oblique injury last postseason and the Sox were within a game of going to another World Series. If he is on, it bodes well for a long, long postseason run for the Sox.

Edge: Even 


BULLPEN

It's been interesting to watch the Sox bullpen evolve over the season. It begins and ends with Jonathan Papelbon, who right now is the best closer in playoff history on paper having allowed zero runs in 25 innings. Hidecki Okajima and Billy Wagner provide solid relief from the left side while Takashi Saito, Daniel Bard, and Ramon Ramirez are good from the right side. As for LA, Brian Fuentes led the AL in saves with 48. He can be an adventure at times though. Jepsen and Bulger are solid from the right side while Darren Oliver is still going strong from the left side.

Summary

The Sox look to have a big edge here. Papelbon is one of the best while Okajima is a sleeper. We haven't seen him much in the last month, but he can put up great numbers in the postseason as we've seen. The one Sox factor is that Daniel Bard is unproven. Bears watching. As for LA, Fuentes can do a good job, but is streaky. Bulger had shoulder issues, but if healthy, he's legit.

Edge: Boston


MANAGERS

Can't say enough about the job Terry Francona and his staff did again this season. Sox fans tend to panic when the Sox lose some games in September. However, once Francona realized the Sox were going to the playoffs, he went into his "let's get 'em ready" mode and shut down some players. He and John Farrell have done a great job of this over the last several seasons. Francona is a Hall of Fame manager and does a masterful job in the playoffs. Mike Scioscia is a great manager with a World Series title under his belt. He has tried everything to beat the Sox and looks like he has this group primed to maybe finally do it.

Edge: Boston


Results: Boston 7-3-4

I think this is the year that the Red Sox can cement their Yankee-like run of 96-2000. The Sox are balanced everywhere and have lots of postseason experience. The Angels are determined to finally sink the Sox and are a worthy opponent. Has the potential to be a great series. However, I think this Sox team will win the World Series, so I give them the edge.

Prediction: Boston in 5

(© MMIX, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved.)

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