Climate Change

(WBZ) A Global Warming Q&A session with Meteorologist Mish Michaels responds to viewer questions sent into the WBZ weather team.

#1) I own property along the south coast on the beach, should I be concerned about rising water level in the coming decades?

View Mish Michaels video response.

To answer this question, we need only reflect on the recent Patriot's Weekend Storm. Astronomically high tides combined with the elevated seas and wave action induced by the storm resulted in a hammering along parts of our coast. Sections of the North and South Shore and coastal New Hampshire experienced the worst coastal flooding in over a decade. Had the storm hit during a low tide cycle, the damage would have been far less.

When a storm churns up the Atlantic, even small changes in the height of the ocean can result in a much greater impact. According to the Union of Concerned Scientists in Cambridge, sea level has risen worldwide by nearly 7 inches over the last 100 years.

Climate models have forecasted a broad range in sea level rise—some calling for a rise of another 7 inches this century with higher estimates featuring a rise of almost two feet. The higher the sea level rise, the greater the impact…given the broad range in estimates of future sea level rise, it is clear that much uncertainty remains. Suffice it to say, on an average, storm free day, only the lowest lying property would be affected in the near term.

If you do have coastal property, the best advice is to check your insurance policy and read the small print. Be sure that you have signed up to be a part of the National Flood Insurance Program. Many of the areas along our coast that are not considered part of a floodplain might actually be designated as such very soon. The maps for floodplains are old—based on sea level measurement of the 1930s. These maps are soon to be redrawn, so ask your insurance company about your status.

Due to elevated concerns over coastal impacts in a warmer world, insurance companies have either raised rates or stopped providing insurance to many coastal residents, including most homes on Cape Cod. Residents have been forced to get insurance from the FAIR Plan supported by the state. I believe they don't insure homes over $1 million and the rates are scheduled to continue to increase given concerns over sea level rise and a warmer world.

#2) Is global warming basically agreed upon by most scientists these days or is there still some doubt?

View Mish Michaels video response.

Most of you have heard of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This international group of leading scientists has been responsible for reviewing climate data every several years to provide a "state of the science." The most recent IPCC report has been coming out in stages this year. According to the findings, this "body" of scientists have concluded that there is a better than 90% certainty that heat trapping emissions from human activity have caused much of the observed rise in globally averaged temperatures since the 1950s. It should be noted that the IPCC is not just made up of scientists. Politics play a large role in the process.

These findings by the IPCC have understandably increased concerns over global warming and have inspired citizens here in the U.S. and around the world to take action.

As a scientist, it is my job to question all conclusions drawn about the atmosphere and to seek the best fit hypothesis given the evidence presented. As a forecaster, I take part in this type of exercise every day. It is challenging and the computer model data does not always lead you to the correct "solution" or the accurate forecast you hope for. With that said, I spend a great deal of time reviewing articles on climate change, speaking to atmospheric scientists, and producing stories on the topic and my efforts often leave me confused. Our planet has warmed, growing seasons seem to have lengthened—this data is not in question. But the earth system is HIGHLY complex and our computer models are VERY coarse. In fact, just determining the impact clouds have on our climate is not well understood and very poorly modeled.

To give you some examples of the confounding evidence I have read in just the last few days…

A new climate model developed by researchers at Princeton University and the U.S. government indicate that the Southern Ocean (the ocean around the South Pole) could absorb up to 20% more carbon dioxide than previously thought. The reason—climate models improperly placed Southern Hemisphere jet stream winds too far north distorting the oceans response to future increases in greenhouse gases. Hmmm….that could have a sizeable impact on our future.

Another study noted that trees only help when they are planted within 20 degrees north or south of the equator, otherwise trees block the benefits of snow cover that reflects sunlight. And trees release water vapor—a greenhouse gas.

What this amounts to is that the climate puzzle IS COMPLICATED.

I traveled to Spain two years ago on a fellowship funded by the World Meteorological Organization. I met with the top climate scientists from around the world. I asked them in front of hundreds of scientific delegates, what aspects of the earth-ocean-atmospheresystem are being modeled well by climate models and they reluctantly admitted "nothing."

So my questioning and my reading and my research continues. Should we be good stewards of our only planet—ABSOLUTELY. And going green and working towards sustainability is all good. But there are many much more qualified scientists than me that remain skeptical or at least wish to know more before drawing solid conclusions about where our climate is headed.

Climate change is inevitable…our climate is always changing. Even since I began my career as a professional meteorologist more than 10 years ago, storms seem juicier, netting more snow or more rain than in the past. There seems to be more moisture available to precipitate out. It is an interesting time to work in this field. Time will tell and the puzzle will continue to unravel. Many brilliant minds are hard at work finding answers. We may be humbled to conclude one day just the opposite, that humans have much less of an impact on our climate than we currently believe. Stay tuned.

#3) Have you seen Al Gore's movie and what do you think about it? Do you agree with his premise?

View Mish Michaels video response.

I have seen the movie. I was supposed to have a one to one interview with Mr. Gore, but then he refused at the last minute stating that he had an exclusive interview with the Today Show. I did not know that the atmosphere had "exclusivity"—What can be said--we are only human and politics is not pure. I like to believe that all of his intentions are good and I am delighted to see our country come together to think about how we live on this planet. It is a dialog we all should engage in and bringing the story to the public in this fashion is probably the most effective way to get people thinking about our climate. Many policy and economic decisions will ride on climate projections. Our citizens need to be versed on the topic so that we can all vote intelligently on policy proposals and weed out sloppy science from what is real.

I was fascinated by the parallel he drew to the history of tobacco. It was poetic, but again, the climate is MUCH more complicated than carcinogenic smoke disrupting healthy lung function.

For other information on global warming, like tips, facts and resources check out the links below
-The Global warming Tips For Living Green slideshow
-A list of sites and services in Massachusetts that promote and support green building.

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